Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Díaz, Elias
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
48
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.279 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.279 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.279 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.262
0.279
0.297
0.313
wOBA
0.255
0.275
0.296
0.318
0.337
ISO
0.126
0.145
0.167
0.188
0.207
K%
20.5%
22.4%
24.5%
26.6%
28.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
78
+42 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
40
Hard-hit%40.8%
62
+18 vs proj
xBA0.305
35
xSLG0.503
51
xwOBA0.279
25
BB%3.9%
8
-18 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
K%23.4%
46
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
56
Catcher Throwing0.8 · C
69
Framing Runs-0.1 · C
50
Pop Time1.9 · C
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.5 · C
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
87
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
31
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
77 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| Sample | 205 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 385 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.273 | 0.217 to 0.324 | +/- 0.053 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.079 to 0.222 | +/- 0.072 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.0% to 6.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.1% | 31.2% to 44.9% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 25.3% | 19.8% to 33.4% | +/- 6.8% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.6% to 9.6% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.224 to 0.347 | +/- 0.062 |
vs LHP
891 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
2016 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |