Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026

Yastrzemski, Mike

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.317 xwOBA
Range
0.294 to 0.358
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced regular Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.319
xwOBA current pace0.293
xwOBA rolling p500.308
Observed weight45%
xwOBA
0.281 0.294 0.308 0.321 0.334
wOBA
0.325 0.347 0.372 0.396 0.418
ISO
0.135 0.151 0.169 0.187 0.203
K%
19.9% 21.7% 23.6% 25.6% 27.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
53 -18 vs proj
Barrel%3.4%
26 -32 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
Exit velocity89.8
66
Hard-hit%38.8%
46 -15 vs proj
K%23.7%
38
xBA0.316
41
xSLG0.443
28
xwOBA0.293
34 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · LF
84
Arm Strength89.6 · LF
22
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
51
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.9% · rebadged research
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.6% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions62.4% · rebadged research
16
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Yastrzemski, Mike · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2782026-05-19: 0.2772026-05-21: 0.2732026-05-23: 0.2782026-05-24: 0.2782026-05-25: 0.2782026-05-26: 0.2782026-05-28: 0.2802026-05-29: 0.2802026-05-30: 0.2832026-05-31: 0.2862026-06-01: 0.293 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Mike Yastrzemski's tools (93) outpace production (86) by 7 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Yastrzemski, Mike · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 24% of plotted batted ballsOppo 24% LF 335 CF 400 RF 325 2026-03-16 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 54.02026-03-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 18.02026-03-16 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 31.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 28.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · popup · EV 64.5 / LA 65.02026-03-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 10.02026-03-28 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -8.02026-03-28 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 45.1 / LA -68.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -7.02026-03-29 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 76.8 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 70.02026-03-30 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 20.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 44.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 27.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -29.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 34.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 48.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 69.02026-04-02 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -18.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -9.02026-04-02 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -3.02026-04-02 · double · EP · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 36.8 / LA -87.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 32.02026-04-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -4.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -1.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -1.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 2.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 39.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -6.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 47.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -5.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -36.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -27.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 42.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 11.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 0.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -7.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 2.02026-04-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 28.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 40.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 18.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 21.02026-04-20 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -10.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 22.02026-04-20 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 16.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 6.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -1.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -8.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 5.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 33.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 46.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -21.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 29.02026-04-28 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 15.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 16.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 47.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 10.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -8.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -5.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 5.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.4 / LA 73.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 24.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 77.02026-05-03 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 64.7 / LA 31.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 14.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · popup · EV 92.6 / LA 67.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 32.02026-05-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 8.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.4 / LA 70.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 71.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 15.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -2.02026-05-12 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 35.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 20.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 39.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 33.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 34.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -5.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -8.02026-05-21 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 23.02026-05-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 7.02026-05-21 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 14.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 42.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 52.02026-05-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 12.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Yastrzemski, Mike · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 30.3° Length 7.3 ft Ideal path 61% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Yastrzemski, Mike · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.9° Direction -1.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Yastrzemski, Mike · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.5 mph Hard swing rate 4% Whiff / swing 24% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Yastrzemski, Mike · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.270 vs 0.228 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.024
wOBA Δ+0.054
Sample177 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances537----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3170.294 to 0.358+/- 0.032
ISO0.1810.150 to 0.259+/- 0.055
Barrel%5.6%3.8% to 7.5%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%42.3%36.4% to 49.2%+/- 6.4%
K%22.6%18.3% to 29.9%+/- 5.8%
BB%10.7%8.1% to 13.7%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2750.227 to 0.323+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

742 career PA

xwOBA0.228
K%22.4%
BB%6.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHP

2512 career PA

xwOBA0.270
K%19.3%
BB%9.9%
Barrel4.9%