Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Yelich, Christian

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.338 xwOBA
Range
0.300 to 0.380
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced regular Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
66
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
63
Defense1 metrics
66
Speed3 metrics
70
Plate skills10 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.316
xwOBA rolling p500.324
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.301 0.312 0.324 0.336 0.347
wOBA
0.298 0.311 0.327 0.342 0.355
ISO
0.122 0.135 0.150 0.166 0.179
K%
22.4% 23.6% 24.9% 26.2% 27.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%42.2%
68
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.566
70
xwOBA0.316
65 -18 vs proj
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed71.1
72
K%26.0%
33 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · DH
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
45
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.8% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
31
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
61
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
86
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Yelich, Christian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.316 2026-08-20: 0.3052026-08-21: 0.3052026-08-22: 0.3052026-08-23: 0.3052026-08-24: 0.3052026-08-25: 0.3122026-08-26: 0.3122026-08-27: 0.3122026-08-28: 0.3122026-08-29: 0.3122026-08-30: 0.3182026-08-31: 0.316 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Yelich, Christian · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -3.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -15.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 54.0 / LA 8.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.6 / LA 70.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.8 / LA 50.02026-03-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 33.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -1.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -41.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 27.02026-03-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 17.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 4.02026-03-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 64.2 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.02026-03-26 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 65.4 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 10.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 46.3 / LA -53.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 6.02026-03-29 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 35.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 1.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -2.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -36.02026-04-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 18.4 / LA -31.02026-04-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA -16.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -12.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 55.0 / LA 23.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -20.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 2.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -13.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -9.02026-04-05 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 26.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -10.02026-04-06 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 36.02026-04-07 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 4.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 33.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -31.02026-04-10 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 3.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -18.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 34.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -26.02026-04-12 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -16.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -61.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -18.02026-05-17 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 29.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 33.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -27.02026-05-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 47.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 34.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA -13.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 6.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.4 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 24.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 79.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 53.4 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -13.02026-05-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -5.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -42.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 27.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -2.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 38.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -23.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -10.02026-05-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 2.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -51.02026-06-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 4.02026-06-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 70.0 / LA 25.02026-06-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 16.02026-06-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -25.02026-06-04 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 39.02026-06-04 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 25.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA -3.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 24.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -10.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -53.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -20.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -33.02026-06-18 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 25.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 0.02026-06-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA -18.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-06-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 42.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -12.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 42.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -43.02026-06-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 2.02026-06-26 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 29.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 21.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 32.02026-07-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -29.02026-07-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -50.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -17.02026-07-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 3.02026-07-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 29.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 33.02026-08-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -12.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 42.5 / LA -49.02026-08-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 69.1 / LA 72.02026-08-05 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 9.02026-08-05 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 15.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 3.02026-08-07 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 9.02026-08-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -12.02026-08-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.2 / LA -6.02026-08-08 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -30.02026-08-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 56.6 / LA -1.02026-08-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 12.02026-08-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 11.02026-08-13 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -8.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 31.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 4.02026-08-13 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA -1.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 7.02026-08-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 28.02026-08-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 5.02026-08-19 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -7.02026-08-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 20.02026-08-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -52.02026-08-22 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 18.02026-08-23 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 3.02026-08-23 · fielders choice · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -30.02026-08-23 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 18.02026-08-26 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 3.02026-08-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -12.02026-08-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA -21.02026-08-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA -45.02026-08-29 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 18.02026-08-29 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 16.02026-08-29 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 23.02026-08-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA -16.02026-08-30 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.8 / LA -3.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Yelich, Christian · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.4 mph Hard swing rate 27% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Yelich, Christian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 24%24%Whiff: 27%27%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 73%73%Hard hit: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.304 vs 0.249 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.021
wOBA Δ-0.011
Sample438 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances585----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3380.300 to 0.380+/- 0.040
ISO0.1580.099 to 0.248+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.5%3.6% to 7.8%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%45.8%42.3% to 53.7%+/- 5.7%
K%21.7%18.5% to 28.7%+/- 5.1%
BB%10.1%7.9% to 13.3%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3260.288 to 0.376+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1826 career PA

xwOBA0.249
K%21.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel3.6%
vs RHP

4525 career PA

xwOBA0.304
K%19.8%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.5%