Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026

Yelich, Christian

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.338 xwOBA
Range
0.300 to 0.380
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Balanced regular Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.339
xwOBA current pace0.273
xwOBA rolling p500.314
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.283 0.298 0.314 0.331 0.346
wOBA
0.320 0.345 0.374 0.402 0.427
ISO
0.119 0.142 0.168 0.194 0.217
K%
21.3% 23.1% 25.0% 27.0% 28.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.2%
41 -25 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
41 -15 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
55
Exit velocity86.6
28
Hard-hit%33.3%
24 -50 vs proj
K%29.1%
17 -33 vs proj
xBA0.295
26
xSLG0.532
57
xwOBA0.273
19 -55 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
60 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · DH
45
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions68.4% · rebadged research
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.382 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Yelich, Christian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.2742026-05-19: 0.2882026-05-21: 0.2942026-05-23: 0.2842026-05-24: 0.2812026-05-25: 0.2812026-05-26: 0.2872026-05-28: 0.2832026-05-29: 0.2832026-05-30: 0.2832026-05-31: 0.2832026-06-01: 0.273 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

80 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Yelich, Christian · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsOppo 9% LF 344 CF 400 RF 345 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -3.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -15.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.8 / LA 50.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · popup · EV 62.6 / LA 70.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 54.0 / LA 8.02026-03-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 33.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -41.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -1.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 27.02026-03-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 4.02026-03-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 17.02026-03-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 64.2 / LA 21.02026-03-26 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 16.02026-03-26 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 65.4 / LA -23.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 46.3 / LA -53.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 6.02026-03-29 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 35.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 1.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -2.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -36.02026-04-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 18.4 / LA -31.02026-04-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA -16.02026-04-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA -20.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 2.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 55.0 / LA 23.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -12.02026-04-05 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 26.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -9.02026-04-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 90.7 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -13.02026-04-06 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 36.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -10.02026-04-07 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 4.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -31.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 33.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 34.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -18.02026-04-10 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 3.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -26.02026-04-12 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -16.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -61.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 5.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -18.02026-05-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -27.02026-05-18 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 23.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA -13.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.4 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 6.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 24.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 27.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 79.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 53.4 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -13.02026-05-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -5.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -42.02026-05-25 · home run · SL · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 27.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -2.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 38.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -23.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 27.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -10.02026-05-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 2.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -51.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Yelich, Christian · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 36.1° Length 7.4 ft Ideal path 38% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Yelich, Christian · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 9.2° Direction +10.1° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Yelich, Christian · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.4 mph Hard swing rate 27% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Yelich, Christian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 30%30%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 70%70%Hard hit: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.304 vs 0.249 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.064
wOBA Δ+0.036
Sample134 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances585----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3380.300 to 0.380+/- 0.040
ISO0.1580.099 to 0.248+/- 0.075
Barrel%5.5%3.6% to 7.8%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%45.8%42.3% to 53.7%+/- 5.7%
K%21.7%18.5% to 28.7%+/- 5.1%
BB%10.1%7.9% to 13.3%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3260.288 to 0.376+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1826 career PA

xwOBA0.249
K%21.3%
BB%7.4%
Barrel3.6%
vs RHP

4525 career PA

xwOBA0.304
K%19.8%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.5%