Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Bogaerts, Xander
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.321 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.311
0.324
0.338
0.350
wOBA
0.321
0.339
0.360
0.381
0.400
ISO
0.119
0.134
0.151
0.168
0.183
K%
15.1%
16.2%
17.5%
18.8%
19.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
55
+24 vs proj
Barrel%5.4%
55
+19 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
Exit velocity88.2
45
Hard-hit%38.3%
43
K%17.5%
77
xBA0.322
47
xSLG0.509
49
xwOBA0.327
66
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.8 · SS
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Range Runs0.9 · SS
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · SS
80
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed27.3 · SS
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
61
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| Sample | 240 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.295 to 0.362 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.123 | 0.102 to 0.217 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.8% to 6.4% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.6% | 32.7% to 43.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 17.5% | 14.6% to 21.9% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.5% to 10.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.273 to 0.343 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1719 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.2% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
5019 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 14.9% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |