Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Báez, Javier
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.276
0.293
0.311
0.326
wOBA
0.319
0.348
0.381
0.414
0.443
ISO
0.104
0.125
0.148
0.171
0.192
K%
19.0%
20.8%
22.7%
24.6%
26.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.0%
4
Barrel%2.0%
14
-26 vs proj
Bat speed71.0
71
Exit velocity86.9
31
Hard-hit%33.3%
24
-17 vs proj
K%20.0%
62
xBA0.343
68
xSLG0.455
32
xwOBA0.294
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.7 · SS
88
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
15
Arm Runs-0.2 · SS
Limited
Range Runs-1.5 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · SS
31
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
47
SB Success Rate50.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 46.2% · rebadged research
3
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions54.8% · rebadged research
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252 · validated thin sample
96
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline86
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
76 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.091 |
| Sample | 100 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 477 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.251 to 0.332 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.091 to 0.213 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.3% to 6.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.0% | 33.8% to 46.1% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 22.4% | 20.0% to 29.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 3.8% | 2.4% to 7.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.237 to 0.344 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
1317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
3884 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |