Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Story, Trevor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
39
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.5%
17
Exit velocity88.1
52
Hard-hit%41.3%
63
xBA0.325
56
xSLG0.475
40
xwOBA0.248
9
BB%4.6%
12
Bat speed69.2
43
K%31.0%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
51
Arm Strength82.9 · SS
15
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
12
Range Runs-2.2 · SS
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
63
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.8% · rebadged research
7
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions58.9% · rebadged research
7
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
126 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 197 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 558 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.261 to 0.344 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.107 to 0.231 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.7% to 7.6% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.2% | 35.8% to 49.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 25.5% | 22.0% to 32.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 3.7% to 8.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.278 to 0.386 | +/- 0.054 |
vs LHP
1262 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
3358 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |