Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Stubbs, Garrett
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.218 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.228 |
| Observed weight | 14% |
xwOBA
0.152
0.188
0.228
0.268
0.303
wOBA
0.341
0.392
0.448
0.504
0.554
ISO
0.000
0.030
0.068
0.106
0.140
K%
16.7%
20.5%
24.7%
29.0%
32.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · C
Limited
Blocking Runs-0.4 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing1.1 · C
Limited
Framing Runs1.2 · C
Limited
Outs Above Avg-0.1 · C · small sample regression applied
60
Regression applied
Pop Time1.9 · C
Limited
Range Runs-0.3 · C
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.0% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions60.0% · rebadged research
9
Mithrandir Stuff+75
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
53
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
64
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
21 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 223 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 4 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.223 | 0.149 to 0.322 | +/- 0.087 |
| ISO | 0.070 | 0.024 to 0.192 | +/- 0.084 |
| Barrel% | 0.3% | 0.1% to 4.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 19.6% | 3.2% to 36.1% | +/- 16.5% |
| K% | 27.5% | 17.9% to 36.3% | +/- 9.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 3.9% to 11.3% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.296 | 0.164 to 0.376 | +/- 0.106 |
vs LHP
157 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.114 |
| K% | 13.2% |
| BB% | 4.2% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
421 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.121 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |