Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Stubbs, Garrett

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.223 xwOBA
Range
0.149 to 0.322
Live Δ
--
Team PHI Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
44
Offense
percentile
Defense2 metrics
82
Speed1 metrics
29
Plate skills11 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
xwOBA preseason0.218
xwOBA current pace0.243
xwOBA rolling p500.223
Observed weight18%
xwOBA
0.150 0.184 0.223 0.261 0.295
wOBA
0.261 0.303 0.350 0.397 0.439
ISO
0.000 0.029 0.065 0.102 0.134
K%
16.8% 20.4% 24.5% 28.5% 32.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
65
Pop Time1.9 · C
99
Arm Runs-0.0 · C
Small sample
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
Small sample
Catcher Throwing1.3 · C
Small sample
Framing Runs0.4 · C
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · C
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · C
29
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-19
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.0% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions60.0% · rebadged research
9
Mithrandir Stuff+77
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
52
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

21 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Stubbs, Garrett · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 46.02026-03-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -3.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.9 / LA 67.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.6 / LA 64.02026-03-18 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 14.02026-03-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA -44.02026-03-21 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 33.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 44.1 / LA -21.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA -4.02026-04-23 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 44.02026-04-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.1 / LA 10.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 0.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 40.02026-04-24 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA -25.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -3.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 37.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -17.02026-05-02 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 11.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 28.7 / LA 49.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 59.6 / LA 19.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Stubbs, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 42%42%Chase: 37%37%Whiff: 17%17%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 83%83%Hard hit: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
hitter
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances223----
Home Runs4----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2230.149 to 0.322+/- 0.087
ISO0.0700.024 to 0.192+/- 0.084
Barrel%0.3%0.1% to 4.4%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%19.6%3.2% to 36.1%+/- 16.5%
K%27.5%17.9% to 36.3%+/- 9.2%
BB%8.2%3.9% to 11.3%+/- 3.7%
BABIP0.2960.164 to 0.376+/- 0.106
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

157 career PA

xwOBA0.114
K%13.2%
BB%4.2%
Barrel0.0%
vs RHP

421 career PA

xwOBA0.121
K%13.0%
BB%4.6%
Barrel0.0%