Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Sánchez, Gary
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.348 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.305
0.329
0.353
0.375
wOBA
0.329
0.355
0.384
0.413
0.439
ISO
0.163
0.185
0.210
0.234
0.256
K%
19.4%
21.6%
24.1%
26.6%
28.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%17.1%
98
+62 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
65
Bat speed69.1
42
Exit velocity87.0
32
Hard-hit%32.9%
23
-45 vs proj
K%20.2%
61
+34 vs proj
xBA0.283
17
xSLG0.555
63
xwOBA0.348
80
+26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · C
15
Blocking Runs-0.8 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing0.3 · C
Limited
Framing Runs-0.6 · C
Limited
Pop Time2.0 · C
Limited
Range Runs-1.3 · C
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · DH
3
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 78.2% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.070 |
| Sample | 129 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 291 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.249 to 0.380 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.197 | 0.136 to 0.274 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 7.1% | 4.8% to 10.4% | +/- 2.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.9% | 37.0% to 54.1% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 26.9% | 21.5% to 35.7% | +/- 7.1% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 4.7% to 11.5% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.264 | 0.180 to 0.302 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
983 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
2579 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |