Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Urías, Ramón
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.284
0.299
0.314
0.327
wOBA
0.264
0.297
0.333
0.369
0.402
ISO
0.132
0.151
0.171
0.192
0.211
K%
17.6%
19.6%
21.9%
24.1%
26.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.4%
70
+44 vs proj
Barrel%6.5%
69
Bat speed68.0
28
Exit velocity90.2
75
Hard-hit%41.2%
55
K%18.2%
73
+35 vs proj
xBA0.235
2
xSLG0.474
38
xwOBA0.306
47
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-2.2 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · 3B
33
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
76
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| Sample | 77 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 432 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.270 to 0.330 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.146 | 0.113 to 0.211 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.3% to 7.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.0% | 35.1% to 45.2% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 23.9% | 18.3% to 29.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 4.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.251 to 0.348 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
623 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
1335 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 17.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |