Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Bell, Josh
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.294
0.309
0.324
0.337
wOBA
0.259
0.277
0.296
0.316
0.333
ISO
0.104
0.119
0.135
0.152
0.166
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.3%
23.7%
25.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
36
-25 vs proj
Barrel%6.0%
63
Bat speed70.5
65
Exit velocity89.2
57
Hard-hit%39.3%
47
-16 vs proj
K%23.0%
43
-18 vs proj
xBA0.301
31
xSLG0.517
51
xwOBA0.293
34
-36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · DH
7
Sprint Speed25.5 · DH
11
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.318 · validated
98
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
159 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.040 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 544 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.291 to 0.376 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.117 to 0.237 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 4.6% to 8.6% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.9% | 38.5% to 49.6% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 19.9% | 16.7% to 25.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 7.5% to 12.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.239 to 0.317 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
1500 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
3875 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |