Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Hernández, Teoscar
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.339 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.338 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.320
0.338
0.355
0.371
wOBA
0.365
0.385
0.407
0.429
0.449
ISO
0.146
0.164
0.184
0.204
0.222
K%
24.3%
25.8%
27.3%
28.9%
30.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
58
+35 vs proj
Barrel%8.0%
83
Bat speed70.5
64
Exit velocity90.1
73
Hard-hit%46.0%
76
K%27.2%
25
xBA0.373
87
xSLG0.630
80
xwOBA0.339
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
72
Arm Strength90.6 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.5 · LF
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
50
Sprint Speed28.4 · LF
81
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.071 |
| Sample | 224 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 589 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.336 | 0.283 to 0.387 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.117 to 0.253 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 7.8% | 5.7% to 10.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.8% | 41.2% to 53.7% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 27.1% | 23.3% to 32.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.6% to 9.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.269 to 0.364 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1218 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.307 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |
vs RHP
3483 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 25.2% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |