Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026

Nimmo, Brandon

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.336 xwOBA
Range
0.281 to 0.379
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced regular Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.330
xwOBA current pace0.384
xwOBA rolling p500.360
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.329 0.344 0.360 0.376 0.390
wOBA
0.324 0.342 0.361 0.381 0.399
ISO
0.135 0.153 0.173 0.192 0.210
K%
19.0% 20.4% 21.9% 23.4% 24.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
57
Barrel%8.9%
88 +19 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
Exit velocity92.0
90
Hard-hit%51.4%
93
K%21.2%
55
xBA0.380
91
xSLG0.687
90
xwOBA0.384
93 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
71
Arm Strength91.8 · RF
47
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs0.4 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
25
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
72
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
29
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372 · validated
19
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Nimmo, Brandon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3712026-05-19: 0.3702026-05-21: 0.3752026-05-23: 0.3772026-05-24: 0.3862026-05-25: 0.3832026-05-26: 0.3842026-05-28: 0.3852026-05-29: 0.3862026-05-30: 0.3852026-05-31: 0.3912026-06-01: 0.384 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Brandon Nimmo's tools (93) outpace production (75) by 18 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-16.5° Current 36° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

172 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Nimmo, Brandon · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 329 CF 407 RF 326 2026-03-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 35.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 39.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -23.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 21.02026-03-23 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -38.02026-03-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 5.02026-03-23 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 23.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 33.02026-03-24 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 14.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -36.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -39.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 0.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -1.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 14.02026-03-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 64.4 / LA -17.02026-03-28 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 7.02026-03-29 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 11.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -47.02026-03-29 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 30.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -7.02026-03-30 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 6.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 2.02026-03-30 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 52.02026-03-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -20.02026-03-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 11.02026-03-31 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 74.7 / LA 16.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 20.02026-04-01 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 13.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -12.02026-04-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 8.02026-04-03 · triple · FC · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 30.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 56.5 / LA 1.02026-04-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 72.8 / LA 23.02026-04-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 40.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 63.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -10.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -13.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · KC · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 1.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 54.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -12.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 34.7 / LA -7.02026-04-08 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 22.02026-04-08 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -48.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 40.02026-04-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -13.02026-04-10 · field out · KC · popup · EV 89.4 / LA 63.02026-04-11 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 24.02026-04-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 23.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 46.02026-04-11 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 23.02026-04-12 · field out · FO · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -8.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -49.02026-04-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -10.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.3 / LA 16.02026-04-12 · field out · FO · popup · EV 74.3 / LA 57.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 69.02026-04-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 16.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -17.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -32.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · popup · EV 65.7 / LA 55.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 44.9 / LA -63.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA -7.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 45.02026-04-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 6.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 26.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 33.02026-04-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 14.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 35.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -18.02026-04-18 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -6.02026-04-18 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 16.02026-04-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 12.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -13.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 21.02026-04-19 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 23.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 15.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -3.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.2 / LA 85.02026-04-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 14.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 5.02026-04-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.1 / LA 15.02026-04-23 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 57.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 66.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 35.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -27.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 3.02026-04-25 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 18.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 42.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.6 / LA -49.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 8.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 13.02026-04-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -26.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -16.02026-04-27 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 0.02026-04-27 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 35.02026-04-28 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 66.1 / LA 33.02026-04-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 5.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 23.02026-04-29 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 5.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -4.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 5.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 2.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.3 / LA -67.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -4.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 51.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -4.02026-05-07 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -1.02026-05-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 11.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 20.02026-05-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 25.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -10.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 21.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 51.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 2.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 8.02026-05-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 4.02026-05-10 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 23.02026-05-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -24.02026-05-11 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 16.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -1.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 16.02026-05-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.6 / LA -67.02026-05-12 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 4.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -18.02026-05-12 · triple · KC · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 18.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -4.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 43.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -32.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 1.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 6.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 18.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 30.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -34.02026-05-17 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 8.02026-05-17 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 36.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -38.02026-05-18 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -39.02026-05-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 107.7 / LA 14.02026-05-19 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 26.02026-05-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -41.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 9.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 38.02026-05-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -1.02026-05-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 21.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 53.02026-05-23 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 23.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.0 / LA 38.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.9 / LA 32.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -10.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 1.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 67.1 / LA 49.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 6.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 84.1 / LA 16.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 85.2 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA -61.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 44.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 30.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Nimmo, Brandon · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 29.5° Length 7.0 ft Ideal path 52% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Nimmo, Brandon · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 6.9° Direction +0.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Nimmo, Brandon · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.5 mph Hard swing rate 30% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Nimmo, Brandon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.049
wOBA Δ+0.026
Sample269 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances615----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3360.281 to 0.379+/- 0.049
ISO0.1760.120 to 0.271+/- 0.076
Barrel%6.4%4.3% to 8.7%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%47.9%43.2% to 55.2%+/- 6.0%
K%20.6%18.0% to 27.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.5%7.1% to 12.5%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2960.258 to 0.349+/- 0.046
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1355 career PA

xwOBA0.275
K%20.1%
BB%6.3%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHP

3241 career PA

xwOBA0.298
K%19.3%
BB%9.6%
Barrel5.6%