Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Turner, Trea
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
46
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.290
0.301
0.312
0.322
wOBA
0.286
0.298
0.310
0.323
0.334
ISO
0.126
0.136
0.147
0.158
0.168
K%
19.1%
19.9%
20.9%
21.9%
22.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity88.1
53
Hard-hit%39.3%
54
xBA0.317
49
xSLG0.478
41
xwOBA0.294
37
-31 vs proj
BB%6.5%
28
Bat speed70.0
56
K%21.5%
57
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
75
Arm Strength85.9 · SS
40
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · SS
2
Range Runs-5.7 · SS
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.0 · SS
90
Bolts78.0 · SS
97
SB Success Rate88.2% · SS
76
Sprint Speed29.8 · SS
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.0% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
298 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 620 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 601 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.319 | 0.288 to 0.375 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.124 to 0.250 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.4% to 7.3% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 37.7% to 48.2% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 17.8% | 16.4% to 24.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.6% to 9.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.323 | 0.298 to 0.376 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
1625 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.296 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
4430 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |