Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Bregman, Alex
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.323 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.307
0.318
0.328
0.337
wOBA
0.346
0.357
0.370
0.383
0.395
ISO
0.170
0.181
0.192
0.204
0.214
K%
13.5%
14.3%
15.1%
16.0%
16.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
42
Exit velocity88.3
54
Hard-hit%38.6%
51
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.458
33
xwOBA0.316
64
BB%10.4%
72
+16 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
31
K%15.6%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.6 · 3B
14
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs5.0 · 3B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 3B
45
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.1% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
69
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| Sample | 635 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 533 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.299 to 0.370 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.121 to 0.246 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.1% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.8% | 36.6% to 49.0% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 13.9% | 11.8% to 19.3% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.4% to 12.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.248 to 0.317 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
1786 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.299 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
4141 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 12.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |