Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.255 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Kelly, Carson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.294
0.306
0.318
0.329
wOBA
0.335
0.350
0.367
0.383
0.398
ISO
0.120
0.132
0.145
0.159
0.170
K%
15.3%
16.4%
17.5%
18.7%
19.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
43
Exit velocity87.3
44
Hard-hit%37.1%
44
xBA0.296
26
xSLG0.462
35
xwOBA0.314
60
+25 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72
+18 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
K%16.1%
85
+26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.5 · C
92
Catcher Throwing-2.2 · C
6
Framing Runs1.7 · C
71
Pop Time2.0 · C
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
84
Fastball Stuff+80
1
Mithrandir Stuff+78
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
49
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
190 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| Sample | 385 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.273 to 0.337 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.096 to 0.209 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 3.0% to 6.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 33.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.2% | 16.4% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.8% to 12.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.237 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
697 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1651 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |