Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Refsnyder, Rob

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.291 xwOBA
Range
0.232 to 0.338
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced regular Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
19
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
23
Defense1 metrics
22
Speed1 metrics
37
Plate skills10 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
xwOBA preseason0.295
xwOBA current pace0.249
xwOBA rolling p500.278
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.240 0.258 0.278 0.297 0.315
wOBA
0.186 0.208 0.232 0.256 0.278
ISO
0.076 0.097 0.120 0.143 0.164
K%
21.6% 23.7% 25.9% 28.2% 30.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41
Exit velocity85.3
20
Hard-hit%33.7%
27 -34 vs proj
xBA0.244
2
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.249
7 -26 vs proj
BB%6.6%
27 -38 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%27.9%
23
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Arm Runs-0.2 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · DH
37
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-19
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
63
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Refsnyder, Rob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.249 2026-07-08: 0.2492026-07-09: 0.2492026-07-10: 0.2492026-07-11: 0.2492026-07-12: 0.2492026-07-13: 0.2492026-07-14: 0.2492026-07-15: 0.2492026-07-16: 0.2492026-07-17: 0.2492026-07-18: 0.2492026-07-19: 0.249 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Refsnyder, Rob · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 68% of plotted batted ballsCenter 68%Right field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsOppo 19% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 29.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -2.02026-03-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 19.02026-03-17 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -14.02026-03-17 · field out · KC · popup · EV 70.3 / LA 77.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 88.02026-03-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 40.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.6 / LA 73.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 36.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 56.5 / LA 66.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.7 / LA 76.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 38.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 99.5 / LA 66.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.8 / LA 72.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · force out · KC · ground_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 16.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.0 / LA -28.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -5.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 25.02026-04-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 38.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -15.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -19.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 41.02026-04-21 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 70.7 / LA 24.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 38.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 69.02026-04-22 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 26.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 9.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 0.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 12.02026-04-26 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 32.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 53.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 44.02026-04-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 14.02026-05-02 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 61.02026-05-04 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 2.02026-05-08 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -34.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 31.02026-05-09 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -37.02026-05-09 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -18.02026-05-09 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 22.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 39.02026-05-16 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA -16.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -27.02026-05-17 · sac fly · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 28.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 24.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 45.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA 1.02026-05-20 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 4.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 34.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -6.02026-05-27 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 107.7 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -11.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 48.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 61.2 / LA 54.02026-06-01 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -9.02026-06-05 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.0 / LA 6.02026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 15.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 6.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 79.3 / LA 28.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 5.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA -25.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 49.0 / LA 72.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -22.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Refsnyder, Rob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 25%25%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 75%75%Hard hit: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.252 vs 0.215 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.042
wOBA Δ-0.059
Sample136 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances347----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2910.232 to 0.338+/- 0.053
ISO0.1390.086 to 0.223+/- 0.069
Barrel%4.6%2.9% to 7.8%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%41.3%33.2% to 52.3%+/- 9.6%
K%27.6%19.4% to 32.1%+/- 6.3%
BB%9.8%7.2% to 13.1%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2880.222 to 0.341+/- 0.060
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

831 career PA

xwOBA0.252
K%16.9%
BB%9.5%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHP

816 career PA

xwOBA0.215
K%19.5%
BB%5.9%
Barrel3.2%