Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Buxton, Byron
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 33
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
86
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.0%
99
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%47.1%
86
xBA0.340
74
xSLG0.669
92
xwOBA0.343
87
BB%7.7%
39
Bat speed72.5
85
K%24.6%
39
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
20
Arm Strength95.9 · CF
69
Outs Above Avg3.0 · CF
93
Range Runs2.6 · CF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
48
Bolts36.0 · CF
88
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
97
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.376 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
202 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
| Sample | 418 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 521 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.337 | 0.299 to 0.365 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.226 | 0.184 to 0.311 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 8.4% | 6.3% to 10.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.1% | 40.5% to 53.4% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 27.4% | 23.1% to 33.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.5% to 10.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.248 to 0.338 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
969 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |
vs RHP
2573 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 24.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |