Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Walton, Donovan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.292 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.250
0.273
0.299
0.324
0.347
wOBA
0.340
0.368
0.400
0.432
0.460
ISO
0.096
0.123
0.153
0.183
0.211
K%
10.8%
14.3%
18.1%
22.0%
25.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
28
Exit velocity86.0
26
Hard-hit%37.6%
45
+22 vs proj
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.510
50
xwOBA0.312
55
BB%5.5%
17
-29 vs proj
Bat speed65.3
8
K%17.3%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 3B
18
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
Small sample
Range Runs-2.9 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
47 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.100 |
| Sample | 110 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 215 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.182 to 0.316 | +/- 0.067 |
| ISO | 0.135 | 0.033 to 0.199 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.5% to 5.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.6% | 17.9% to 41.0% | +/- 11.6% |
| K% | 19.5% | 8.8% to 30.2% | +/- 10.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 3.0% to 13.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.147 to 0.319 | +/- 0.086 |
vs LHP
62 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.042 |
| K% | 2.8% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
209 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.047 |
| K% | 2.6% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |