Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Mateo, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
77
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.287 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.257
0.279
0.303
0.327
0.349
wOBA
0.315
0.339
0.365
0.392
0.415
ISO
0.106
0.127
0.151
0.174
0.195
K%
22.3%
24.3%
26.6%
28.9%
31.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
74
+48 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%46.5%
82
+44 vs proj
xBA0.388
95
xSLG0.657
88
xwOBA0.325
67
+35 vs proj
BB%6.6%
26
Bat speed70.4
61
K%28.3%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
31
Arm Strength94.1 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
84
Range Runs2.1 · SS
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
77
Bolts27.0 · SS
87
SB Success Rate90.0% · SS
79
Sprint Speed30.3 · SS
100
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.7% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
61
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
24
Mithrandir Stuff+76
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
70 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| Sample | 152 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.198 to 0.338 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.073 to 0.215 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.0% to 6.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 28.9% to 46.7% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.5% | 19.6% to 32.8% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 9.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.200 to 0.335 | +/- 0.067 |
vs LHP
574 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.194 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |
vs RHP
961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.177 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |