Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026
Alonso, Pete
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team BAL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
91
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.354 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.368 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.362 |
| Observed weight | 59% |
xwOBA
0.332
0.346
0.362
0.378
0.393
wOBA
0.321
0.337
0.355
0.373
0.390
ISO
0.171
0.189
0.207
0.226
0.243
K%
20.5%
21.8%
23.2%
24.6%
25.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
86
Exit velocity95.1
99
Hard-hit%56.5%
98
+16 vs proj
xBA0.364
84
xSLG0.692
92
xwOBA0.368
88
BB%9.9%
65
Bat speed73.0
89
K%22.7%
45
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs1.9 · 1B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
18
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
56
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
187 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 322 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 648 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 33 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.364 | 0.312 to 0.424 | +/- 0.056 |
| ISO | 0.232 | 0.152 to 0.308 | +/- 0.078 |
| Barrel% | 8.8% | 6.6% to 11.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.0% | 40.3% to 55.3% | +/- 7.5% |
| K% | 22.4% | 18.7% to 28.6% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 7.2% to 13.4% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.239 to 0.332 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
1249 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.310 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 8.7% |
| Barrel | 8.2% |
vs RHP
3299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.324 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 8.6% |