Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Conforto, Michael
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.392 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.347 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.330
0.347
0.365
0.381
wOBA
0.420
0.448
0.480
0.512
0.541
ISO
0.152
0.173
0.196
0.219
0.239
K%
20.8%
22.4%
24.3%
26.1%
27.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
84
+23 vs proj
Barrel%8.9%
88
+32 vs proj
Bat speed71.0
72
Exit velocity95.2
99
Hard-hit%59.2%
99
+38 vs proj
K%24.1%
38
xBA0.401
96
xSLG0.786
97
xwOBA0.392
96
+29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-1.2 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · RF
22
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.2% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions72.7% · rebadged research
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.411 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
69 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.065 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.152 |
| Sample | 112 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.328 | 0.289 to 0.371 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.099 to 0.218 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.9% to 7.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 37.0% to 49.5% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.8% to 29.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.9% to 13.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.220 to 0.318 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
1115 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3458 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |