Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Conforto, Michael
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
80
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.312
0.326
0.341
0.354
wOBA
0.351
0.369
0.389
0.409
0.427
ISO
0.173
0.188
0.205
0.222
0.238
K%
22.9%
24.2%
25.7%
27.1%
28.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
76
+17 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
88
Hard-hit%45.5%
81
xBA0.343
76
xSLG0.637
87
xwOBA0.328
74
BB%11.0%
79
+17 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
K%26.7%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
59
Arm Strength88.2 · RF
14
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
24
Range Runs-2.2 · RF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
17
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.422 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
105 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.061 |
| Sample | 273 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.328 | 0.289 to 0.371 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.099 to 0.218 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.9% to 7.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 37.0% to 49.5% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.8% to 29.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.9% to 13.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.220 to 0.318 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
1115 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3458 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |