Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Frazier, Adam
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
14
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.264 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.249
0.262
0.277
0.292
0.305
wOBA
0.331
0.356
0.383
0.410
0.434
ISO
0.086
0.104
0.124
0.145
0.163
K%
18.7%
20.2%
21.8%
23.5%
25.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
13
Exit velocity82.4
6
Hard-hit%18.5%
2
xBA0.305
33
xSLG0.411
16
xwOBA0.264
16
BB%10.9%
78
+48 vs proj
Bat speed61.7
1
K%24.5%
40
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
21
Arm Strength89.2 · 2B
66
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
46
Range Runs-0.8 · 2B
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · 2B
19
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
49
Changeup Stuff+93
6
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
76
Mithrandir Stuff+72
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Slider Stuff+57
0
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
76 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.100 |
| Sample | 147 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.283 | 0.256 to 0.328 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.119 | 0.087 to 0.209 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.1% to 4.2% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.6% | 15.0% to 29.5% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 18.6% | 16.5% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 4.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.230 to 0.326 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
916 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
3517 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |