Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Sosa, Edmundo
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.348 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.298
0.318
0.339
0.357
wOBA
0.276
0.303
0.333
0.363
0.390
ISO
0.106
0.128
0.152
0.177
0.199
K%
17.9%
20.1%
22.6%
25.0%
27.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.7%
3
Barrel%7.1%
76
+40 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
Exit velocity88.2
46
Hard-hit%41.5%
57
+27 vs proj
K%21.4%
52
xBA0.394
95
xSLG0.627
80
xwOBA0.348
79
+38 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 2B
4
Arm Strength83.7 · 2B
33
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
45
Range Runs0.7 · 2B
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts5.0 · 2B
56
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
78
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 46.2% · rebadged research
3
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.6% · rebadged research
35
Correct Decisions55.6% · rebadged research
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.318 · validated
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline84
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
81 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 112 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 374 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.244 to 0.345 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.109 to 0.243 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.5% to 7.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 32.8% to 45.3% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 23.7% | 18.5% to 31.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| BB% | 4.3% | 2.4% to 7.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.245 to 0.363 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
575 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
921 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |