Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Sosa, Edmundo
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.340 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.302
0.320
0.338
0.355
wOBA
0.279
0.300
0.324
0.348
0.369
ISO
0.116
0.135
0.156
0.177
0.196
K%
17.6%
19.5%
21.6%
23.7%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
68
+33 vs proj
Exit velocity87.9
47
Hard-hit%41.2%
60
+27 vs proj
xBA0.370
89
xSLG0.599
77
xwOBA0.340
78
+34 vs proj
BB%2.8%
4
Bat speed70.8
69
K%19.8%
67
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
24
Arm Strength84.8 · LF
3
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs1.1 · LF
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts10.0 · LF
69
Sprint Speed28.7 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 46.2% · rebadged research
3
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5% · rebadged research
36
Correct Decisions56.1% · rebadged research
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
96
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
40
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.308 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline82
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
98 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| Sample | 177 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 374 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.244 to 0.345 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.109 to 0.243 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 2.5% to 7.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.7% | 32.8% to 45.3% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 23.7% | 18.5% to 31.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| BB% | 4.3% | 2.4% to 7.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.308 | 0.245 to 0.363 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
575 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
921 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.215 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 2.6% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |