Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Escarra, J.c.
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.293
0.315
0.337
0.356
wOBA
0.286
0.319
0.355
0.390
0.423
ISO
0.121
0.149
0.179
0.209
0.236
K%
13.7%
16.3%
19.2%
22.1%
24.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
34
-17 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
48
Bat speed67.4
23
Exit velocity87.7
39
Hard-hit%33.9%
26
-19 vs proj
K%18.5%
71
+24 vs proj
xBA0.295
26
xSLG0.444
29
xwOBA0.289
31
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
84
Catcher Throwing-0.0 · C
40
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
43
Pop Time1.9 · C
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
22
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2% · rebadged research
31
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
55
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
55 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| Sample | 81 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 261 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.325 | 0.225 to 0.329 | +/- 0.052 |
| ISO | 0.181 | 0.069 to 0.222 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 1.7% to 6.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.7% | 28.3% to 46.9% | +/- 9.3% |
| K% | 22.5% | 11.5% to 25.8% | +/- 7.2% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 4.1% to 12.0% | +/- 3.9% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.197 to 0.330 | +/- 0.067 |
vs LHP
28 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.093 |
| K% | 6.4% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
104 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.101 |
| K% | 5.5% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |