Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment
Protected takes / Chase risk
McMahon, Ryan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Ryan Mcmahon's tools (93) outpace production (75) by 18 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.
Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs
Protected takes / Chase riskField-coordinate spray profile
106 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 182 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 580 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.262 to 0.343 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.174 | 0.122 to 0.245 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 4.2% to 8.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.8% | 42.9% to 56.7% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 30.6% | 25.4% to 35.3% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 7.8% to 13.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.288 | 0.245 to 0.336 | +/- 0.045 |
1180 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 26.4% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
3029 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 26.3% |
| BB% | 10.1% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |