Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

McMahon, Ryan

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.307 xwOBA
Range
0.262 to 0.343
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Impact slugger Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
76
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
66
Defense3 metrics
71
Speed2 metrics
13
Plate skills10 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
72
Exit velocity90.8
86
Hard-hit%49.0%
92
xBA0.350
81
xSLG0.590
77
xwOBA0.306
51
BB%7.9%
42
Bat speed71.7
77
K%29.9%
16
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.8 · 3B
47
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
84
Range Runs2.9 · 3B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate60.0% · 3B
11
Sprint Speed25.9 · 3B
15
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.8% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
51
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
35
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA McMahon, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.306 2026-08-22: 0.3042026-08-23: 0.3042026-08-24: 0.3042026-08-25: 0.3042026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3042026-08-31: 0.3042026-09-01: 0.3042026-09-02: 0.306 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

137 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart McMahon, Ryan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsPull 22%Center field third: 61% of plotted batted ballsCenter 61%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -45.02026-03-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 69.02026-03-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 4.02026-03-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 30.02026-03-19 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 112.1 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 20.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.5 / LA 61.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.2 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -2.02026-03-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 5.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 14.02026-03-24 · sac fly · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 44.02026-03-25 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -26.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -23.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 27.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA -52.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -24.02026-04-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 51.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -20.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -18.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 13.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -17.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 40.02026-04-09 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 6.02026-04-11 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 17.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 52.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 18.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -9.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 2.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.1 / LA -41.02026-04-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -14.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 46.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -9.02026-04-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 37.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 42.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -10.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -5.02026-04-24 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -12.02026-04-24 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 29.02026-04-25 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 13.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 30.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 2.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 54.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 34.02026-04-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 16.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 57.8 / LA 15.02026-04-27 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 17.02026-04-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -7.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 33.02026-04-29 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -21.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.3 / LA 42.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 34.02026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 14.02026-05-03 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 49.02026-05-03 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 27.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 52.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 8.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 58.02026-05-05 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 29.02026-05-05 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 39.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 46.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · popup · EV 74.9 / LA 71.02026-05-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 4.02026-05-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 6.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 17.02026-05-09 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 0.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 60.9 / LA 44.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 20.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -2.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA -42.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 41.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.4 / LA 73.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -21.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 25.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 69.2 / LA 50.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -8.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 41.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 72.2 / LA 43.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 62.02026-05-17 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball2026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -17.02026-05-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 4.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 29.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.6 / LA -56.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA 12.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 50.5 / LA -82.02026-05-21 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 28.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 37.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -10.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 4.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.5 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 19.02026-06-04 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -7.02026-06-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -3.02026-06-05 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 7.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 29.02026-06-05 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 30.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.2 / LA 7.02026-06-18 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 28.02026-07-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 6.02026-08-02 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 14.02026-08-02 · field out · FC · popup · EV 51.8 / LA 41.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 39.02026-08-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.0 / LA 24.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 36.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 10.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -35.02026-08-07 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 45.02026-08-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.8 / LA 9.02026-08-07 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 15.02026-08-11 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 6.02026-08-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 31.02026-08-13 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 80.8 / LA 29.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 42.02026-08-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 4.02026-08-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 60.02026-08-15 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 36.02026-08-15 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 15.02026-08-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 47.9 / LA -74.02026-08-19 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 17.02026-09-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 62.02026-09-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 31.8 / LA -14.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 39.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile McMahon, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 28%28%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 72%72%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.289 vs 0.251 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
4
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--
Sample331 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances580----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3070.262 to 0.343+/- 0.041
ISO0.1740.122 to 0.245+/- 0.062
Barrel%6.6%4.2% to 8.9%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%47.8%42.9% to 56.7%+/- 6.9%
K%30.6%25.4% to 35.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%10.4%7.8% to 13.2%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2880.245 to 0.336+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1180 career PA

xwOBA0.251
K%26.4%
BB%7.7%
Barrel3.5%
vs RHP

3029 career PA

xwOBA0.289
K%26.3%
BB%10.1%
Barrel6.2%