Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Wilson, Weston

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.302 xwOBA
Range
0.233 to 0.344
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.306
xwOBA current pace0.297
xwOBA rolling p500.305
Observed weight21%
xwOBA
0.258 0.280 0.305 0.329 0.352
wOBA
0.283 0.321 0.364 0.407 0.446
ISO
0.093 0.120 0.150 0.180 0.207
K%
18.9% 21.7% 24.8% 28.0% 30.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.5%
70 +28 vs proj
Barrel%1.8%
11 -42 vs proj
Bat speed68.6
36
Exit velocity87.1
33
Hard-hit%35.3%
29 -26 vs proj
K%22.8%
45 +16 vs proj
xBA0.278
15
xSLG0.453
31
xwOBA0.297
38
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
9
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
Limited
Range Runs-2.9 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · 3B
47
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.1% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
54
Mithrandir Stuff+62
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Wilson, Weston · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-23: 0.3272026-05-24: 0.3272026-05-25: 0.3242026-05-26: 0.3092026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.3042026-05-30: 0.2972026-05-31: 0.2972026-06-01: 0.297 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

34 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Wilson, Weston · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 24% of plotted batted ballsPull 24%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 60.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.6 / LA -37.02026-03-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -32.02026-03-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 28.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 21.02026-03-21 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -20.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.3 / LA 60.02026-04-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 31.02026-04-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.3 / LA 22.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.0 / LA 49.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 21.02026-04-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 6.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · popup · EV 76.2 / LA 67.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA -14.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · popup · EV 67.5 / LA 72.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball2026-05-03 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -2.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.5 / LA 63.02026-05-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 65.2 / LA 85.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 14.02026-05-13 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -26.02026-05-13 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 14.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.0 / LA 12.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA 5.02026-05-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 29.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 58.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 48.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.7 / LA -23.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 24.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -5.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA -25.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 32.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Wilson, Weston · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.183 vs 0.153 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.004
wOBA Δ+0.063
Sample57 PA
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances274----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3020.233 to 0.344+/- 0.056
ISO0.1750.073 to 0.214+/- 0.070
Barrel%5.2%2.3% to 7.3%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%41.3%28.9% to 47.0%+/- 9.1%
K%26.6%19.7% to 34.2%+/- 7.2%
BB%8.3%5.1% to 12.2%+/- 3.6%
BABIP0.2910.208 to 0.358+/- 0.075
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

161 career PA

xwOBA0.183
K%14.5%
BB%5.8%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHP

137 career PA

xwOBA0.153
K%14.6%
BB%4.6%
Barrel2.5%