Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs
Protected takes / Chase risk
Rosario, Amed
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.339 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Amed Rosario's tools (87) outpace production (81) by 6 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.
Field-coordinate spray profile
84 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.127 |
| Sample | 114 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 346 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.254 to 0.350 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.066 to 0.212 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.4% | 33.7% to 47.1% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 18.9% | 15.4% to 28.0% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 4.1% | 2.5% to 6.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.236 to 0.357 | +/- 0.060 |
1247 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
2847 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |