Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Rosario, Amed
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYY
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
72
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.291
0.309
0.326
0.341
wOBA
0.315
0.336
0.360
0.384
0.406
ISO
0.135
0.156
0.179
0.202
0.222
K%
17.4%
19.3%
21.3%
23.4%
25.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
79
+54 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
88
Hard-hit%43.0%
67
+23 vs proj
xBA0.334
63
xSLG0.587
73
xwOBA0.315
59
+25 vs proj
BB%6.6%
26
+17 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
81
K%23.1%
45
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
32
Arm Strength90.0 · 3B
77
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-6.3 · 3B
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · 3B
42
Sprint Speed28.4 · 3B
79
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.5% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research
69
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
59
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| Sample | 182 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 346 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.254 to 0.350 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.066 to 0.212 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.4% | 33.7% to 47.1% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 18.9% | 15.4% to 28.0% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 4.1% | 2.5% to 6.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.236 to 0.357 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
1247 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |
vs RHP
2847 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |