Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Rosario, Amed

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.292 xwOBA
Range
0.254 to 0.350
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.304
xwOBA current pace0.339
xwOBA rolling p500.316
Observed weight34%
xwOBA
0.279 0.296 0.316 0.335 0.352
wOBA
0.359 0.387 0.419 0.450 0.478
ISO
0.131 0.155 0.182 0.209 0.234
K%
14.9% 17.0% 19.4% 21.7% 23.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.1%
21
Barrel%7.9%
81 +54 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
83
Exit velocity92.6
93
Hard-hit%46.5%
78 +38 vs proj
K%18.4%
72
xBA0.323
50
xSLG0.632
81
xwOBA0.339
75 +41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
Limited
Range Runs-3.6 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · 3B
37
Sprint Speed28.6 · 3B
86
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.9% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions60.6% · rebadged research
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
34
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
84
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rosario, Amed · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3402026-05-19: 0.3362026-05-21: 0.3332026-05-23: 0.3262026-05-24: 0.3262026-05-25: 0.3262026-05-26: 0.3262026-05-28: 0.3392026-05-29: 0.3392026-05-30: 0.3392026-05-31: 0.3392026-06-01: 0.339 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Amed Rosario's tools (87) outpace production (81) by 6 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

84 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rosario, Amed · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-18 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 12.02026-03-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 6.02026-03-19 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.3 / LA -13.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 33.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -1.02026-03-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -8.02026-03-21 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 12.02026-03-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 3.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 39.02026-03-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 13.02026-03-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 37.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -21.02026-03-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -18.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 6.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -28.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 33.02026-03-30 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 89.1 / LA 24.02026-04-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 40.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -21.02026-04-01 · single · ST · popup · EV 60.4 / LA 26.02026-04-07 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 33.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -2.02026-04-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 79.3 / LA 10.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 2.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -5.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 52.02026-04-10 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 4.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 2.02026-04-10 · triple · CH · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 14.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 38.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA -46.02026-04-12 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 22.02026-04-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 10.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 28.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.3 / LA 6.02026-04-14 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 111.4 / LA 9.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.3 / LA -39.02026-04-16 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 25.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -20.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 19.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.9 / LA -1.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -15.02026-04-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 4.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · popup · EV 83.6 / LA 67.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 84.7 / LA 68.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -15.02026-04-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 112.1 / LA 22.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 51.02026-04-19 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -7.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.4 / LA -18.02026-04-22 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 108.4 / LA 25.02026-04-22 · sac fly · FC · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 18.02026-04-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 6.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 41.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -7.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.9 / LA 77.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA -26.02026-05-01 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 9.02026-05-07 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 45.02026-05-07 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 25.02026-05-07 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -2.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -24.02026-05-09 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 16.02026-05-09 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -39.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 44.02026-05-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.9 / LA -25.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 42.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA -56.02026-05-16 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 24.02026-05-17 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 14.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · popup · EV 66.7 / LA 76.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 42.02026-05-26 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 10.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 55.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -18.02026-05-26 · home run · EP · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 26.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 3.02026-05-27 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -6.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rosario, Amed · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 39%39%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.047
wOBA Δ+0.127
Sample114 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances346----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2920.254 to 0.350+/- 0.048
ISO0.1280.066 to 0.212+/- 0.073
Barrel%3.5%1.6% to 6.5%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%37.4%33.7% to 47.1%+/- 6.7%
K%18.9%15.4% to 28.0%+/- 6.3%
BB%4.1%2.5% to 6.9%+/- 2.2%
BABIP0.2930.236 to 0.357+/- 0.060
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1247 career PA

xwOBA0.256
K%12.0%
BB%3.1%
Barrel3.0%
vs RHP

2847 career PA

xwOBA0.232
K%15.7%
BB%2.9%
Barrel2.4%