Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SF · 2026

Adames, Willy

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.335 xwOBA
Range
0.285 to 0.372
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Impact slugger Age 31 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
53
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
49
Defense4 metrics
32
Speed3 metrics
30
Plate skills10 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
64
Exit velocity87.5
46
Hard-hit%39.0%
52
xBA0.317
48
xSLG0.559
68
xwOBA0.296
40
BB%7.4%
35
Bat speed70.6
66
K%27.7%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
70
Arm Strength88.2 · SS
59
Outs Above Avg-17.0 · SS
0
Range Runs-12.7 · SS
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · SS
10
SB Success Rate66.7% · SS
20
Sprint Speed27.8 · SS
59
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Adames, Willy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.296 2026-08-22: 0.2892026-08-23: 0.2892026-08-24: 0.2892026-08-25: 0.2962026-08-26: 0.2962026-08-27: 0.2962026-08-28: 0.2962026-08-29: 0.2962026-08-30: 0.2962026-08-31: 0.2962026-09-01: 0.2962026-09-02: 0.296 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Willy Adames's tools (96) outpace production (80) by 16 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

215 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Adames, Willy · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 25% of plotted batted ballsPull 25%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 339 CF 399 RF 309 2026-03-15 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 35.02026-03-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 2.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 20.02026-03-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 27.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -9.02026-03-21 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 27.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 25.02026-03-25 · field error · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.6 / LA -3.02026-03-25 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 15.02026-03-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 30.02026-03-28 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 96.8 / LA 62.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 89.3 / LA 64.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -12.02026-03-30 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 23.02026-03-30 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 8.02026-03-31 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 19.02026-03-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 5.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA -6.02026-03-31 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 7.02026-03-31 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 33.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 26.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.8 / LA 31.02026-04-02 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -3.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 51.7 / LA -3.02026-04-03 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 21.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -53.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 38.02026-04-05 · field out · FO · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 35.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 60.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · popup · EV 78.5 / LA 61.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 25.02026-04-06 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 14.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 38.02026-04-06 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 23.02026-04-07 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 29.02026-04-07 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 29.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.8 / LA -15.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 57.02026-04-08 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 70.6 / LA 50.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 20.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · popup · EV 65.3 / LA 65.02026-04-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 68.8 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 29.02026-04-10 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 14.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA 2.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 65.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · popup · EV 75.2 / LA 67.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 71.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 33.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 32.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 40.02026-04-12 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 11.02026-04-14 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -4.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 18.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -10.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -4.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.8 / LA 62.02026-04-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 4.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 47.02026-04-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 6.02026-04-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -1.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 2.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 30.02026-04-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 6.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 75.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 74.9 / LA 13.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 39.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 90.8 / LA 83.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -18.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 35.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 35.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 58.6 / LA 3.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -11.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 35.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 18.02026-04-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 40.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -1.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.4 / LA 49.02026-05-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 16.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -11.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 86.7 / LA 11.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 30.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -9.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 2.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 48.02026-05-03 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 7.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 51.0 / LA 36.02026-05-04 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 6.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 20.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 48.7 / LA 29.02026-05-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 75.5 / LA 15.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 14.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 51.02026-05-08 · field out · FS · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 65.02026-05-08 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 6.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 73.8 / LA 16.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 34.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -19.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.2 / LA 71.02026-05-10 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 57.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 41.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -15.02026-05-10 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -20.02026-05-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 14.02026-05-11 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 74.1 / LA 16.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 30.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 29.02026-05-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.2 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 1.02026-05-12 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 29.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 12.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.8 / LA 85.02026-05-15 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 86.3 / LA 18.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · popup · EV 87.8 / LA 83.02026-05-15 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -2.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 56.02026-05-16 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 92.4 / LA 24.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 87.2 / LA 19.02026-05-16 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.2 / LA -36.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 27.02026-05-17 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA -9.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 39.02026-05-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 38.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -12.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 26.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 19.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 2.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -2.02026-05-22 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA 1.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 48.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 59.3 / LA 24.02026-05-23 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 5.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 45.02026-05-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 52.02026-05-24 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 23.02026-05-24 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 65.5 / LA -6.02026-05-25 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 49.02026-05-25 · field out · FC · popup · EV 71.4 / LA 61.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 73.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 11.02026-05-26 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 22.02026-05-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 33.02026-05-27 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 58.02026-05-27 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.1 / LA 14.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 62.02026-05-31 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -3.02026-05-31 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 24.02026-05-31 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -12.02026-05-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 14.02026-06-01 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 7.02026-06-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA -39.02026-06-04 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 8.02026-06-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 9.02026-06-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 72.6 / LA 37.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 39.02026-06-04 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 28.02026-06-05 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 40.02026-06-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 29.02026-06-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA 7.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 11.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 58.4 / LA 22.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.3 / LA 59.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 33.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.1 / LA 64.02026-06-26 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 24.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 80.8 / LA 69.02026-06-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 59.6 / LA 30.02026-07-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 47.02026-07-27 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 8.02026-07-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 7.02026-07-31 · field out · SI · popup · EV 54.5 / LA 60.02026-07-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.3 / LA -43.02026-08-02 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.8 / LA 47.02026-08-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 9.02026-08-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 43.02026-08-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA 1.02026-08-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 9.02026-08-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 32.02026-08-07 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -15.02026-08-07 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 43.02026-08-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 10.02026-08-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 63.5 / LA 43.02026-08-11 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -5.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · popup · EV 48.3 / LA 56.02026-08-11 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -24.02026-08-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 47.7 / LA -66.02026-08-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 16.02026-08-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 17.02026-08-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 70.7 / LA 78.02026-08-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 13.02026-08-21 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 20.02026-08-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 39.02026-08-21 · field out · ST · popup · EV 83.1 / LA 68.02026-08-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 15.02026-08-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 109.4 / LA 27.02026-08-23 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.3 / LA 19.02026-08-23 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 26.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Adames, Willy · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.6 mph Hard swing rate 27% Whiff / swing 22% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Adames, Willy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 32%32%Whiff: 27%27%Zone contact: 84%84%Contact: 73%73%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--
Sample517 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances627----
Home Runs26----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3350.285 to 0.372+/- 0.044
ISO0.2020.143 to 0.281+/- 0.069
Barrel%7.1%5.1% to 9.4%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%41.5%35.8% to 48.8%+/- 6.5%
K%25.0%20.8% to 30.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%10.8%7.9% to 13.8%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2840.239 to 0.336+/- 0.049
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1280 career PA

xwOBA0.271
K%23.4%
BB%10.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHP

3305 career PA

xwOBA0.288
K%22.1%
BB%9.4%
Barrel6.1%