Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Dubón, Mauricio
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.283
0.297
0.310
0.322
wOBA
0.308
0.327
0.348
0.368
0.387
ISO
0.096
0.110
0.126
0.141
0.156
K%
11.6%
12.8%
14.2%
15.5%
16.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.1%
22
Barrel%3.3%
26
Bat speed67.3
23
Exit velocity87.1
34
Hard-hit%29.9%
14
K%15.6%
85
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.451
31
xwOBA0.303
42
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
91
Arm Strength97.2 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
45
Range Runs4.4 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · SS
41
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
28
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions63.1% · rebadged research
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
16
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 244 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 451 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.253 to 0.320 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.097 | 0.078 to 0.190 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 1.0% to 4.1% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.3% | 21.7% to 35.1% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 12.3% | 11.0% to 19.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 5.0% | 3.4% to 8.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.237 to 0.337 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
656 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
1555 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |