Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Jansen, Danny
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.296 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.257 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.249
0.264
0.280
0.297
0.311
wOBA
0.251
0.274
0.299
0.325
0.348
ISO
0.109
0.128
0.150
0.172
0.192
K%
21.4%
23.1%
25.0%
27.0%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
60
Barrel%4.1%
36
Bat speed67.7
24
Exit velocity87.2
35
Hard-hit%34.9%
28
K%29.1%
17
-21 vs proj
xBA0.254
6
xSLG0.414
19
xwOBA0.257
10
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.1 · C
93
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
45
Framing Runs-4.5 · C
3
Pop Time2.0 · C
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.1% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions72.2% · rebadged research
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285 · validated thin sample
25
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
82 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.034 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 148 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 406 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.258 to 0.343 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.153 | 0.118 to 0.247 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.8% to 7.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.7% | 30.8% to 46.6% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 23.6% | 18.2% to 28.5% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 7.6% to 14.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.254 | 0.202 to 0.297 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
666 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
1473 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |