Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Kiner-Falefa, Isiah
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.281
0.296
0.311
0.325
wOBA
0.329
0.359
0.391
0.424
0.453
ISO
0.060
0.078
0.098
0.118
0.136
K%
15.1%
16.7%
18.4%
20.2%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
47
+37 vs proj
Barrel%2.9%
23
Bat speed65.0
7
Exit velocity83.1
7
Hard-hit%27.6%
10
K%14.7%
87
xBA0.346
70
xSLG0.442
27
xwOBA0.323
61
+38 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.0 · 2B
8
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
81
Range Runs3.3 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · 2B
81
SB Success Rate80.0% · 2B
49
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.1% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1% · rebadged research
31
Correct Decisions59.6% · rebadged research
7
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.329 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
89
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
68 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.111 |
| Sample | 102 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 511 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.255 to 0.320 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.093 | 0.077 to 0.185 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 1.8% | 0.6% to 3.9% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.3% | 24.9% to 38.3% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 18.0% | 15.0% to 23.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 7.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.260 to 0.361 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
1002 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
2573 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |