Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Kiner-Falefa, Isiah
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.281
0.295
0.310
0.323
wOBA
0.299
0.322
0.348
0.375
0.398
ISO
0.066
0.082
0.100
0.117
0.133
K%
14.3%
15.8%
17.3%
18.9%
20.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
17
Exit velocity81.2
3
Hard-hit%25.9%
8
xBA0.327
57
xSLG0.414
16
xwOBA0.312
56
+32 vs proj
BB%8.6%
51
+40 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%13.2%
93
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
27
Arm Strength79.0 · 2B
5
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs5.0 · 2B
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 2B
82
SB Success Rate77.8% · 2B
41
Sprint Speed27.4 · 2B
51
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.4% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions58.6% · rebadged research
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
79 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| Sample | 151 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 511 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.255 to 0.320 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.093 | 0.077 to 0.185 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 1.8% | 0.6% to 3.9% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.3% | 24.9% to 38.3% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 18.0% | 15.0% to 23.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 7.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.260 to 0.361 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
1002 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
2573 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |