Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Albies, Ozzie
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.314 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.306
0.319
0.331
wOBA
0.320
0.338
0.357
0.376
0.394
ISO
0.134
0.148
0.164
0.179
0.194
K%
11.2%
12.3%
13.6%
14.8%
15.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.2%
32
Barrel%2.9%
23
-19 vs proj
Bat speed66.8
20
Exit velocity86.6
27
Hard-hit%28.0%
10
-16 vs proj
K%12.3%
94
xBA0.287
20
xSLG0.432
24
xwOBA0.299
40
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
79
Arm Strength81.0 · 2B
16
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
93
Range Runs3.1 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 2B
53
Sprint Speed27.1 · 2B
45
SB Success Rate0.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.0% · rebadged research
98
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
19
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · insufficient sample
40
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325 · validated
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
208 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.018 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.040 |
| Sample | 277 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 592 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.287 to 0.360 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.135 to 0.251 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.3% to 6.8% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 30.3% to 40.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 14.1% | 12.0% to 20.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.4% to 10.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.260 to 0.324 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
1219 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 11.2% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3613 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |