Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.304 vs 0.260 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Naylor, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
41
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.317 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.295
0.305
0.317
0.328
0.339
wOBA
0.299
0.311
0.324
0.338
0.350
ISO
0.098
0.108
0.119
0.131
0.141
K%
11.8%
12.6%
13.5%
14.4%
15.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
29
-28 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
41
Hard-hit%36.0%
39
-23 vs proj
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.450
29
xwOBA0.315
62
BB%7.2%
35
Bat speed68.1
30
K%12.9%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.8 · 1B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.8 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate91.7% · 1B
83
Sprint Speed24.4 · 1B
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.382 · validated
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
285 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 567 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 610 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.279 to 0.366 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.169 | 0.112 to 0.245 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.4% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.1% | 37.9% to 48.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 15.2% | 12.5% to 20.3% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 6.4% to 10.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.263 to 0.332 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
870 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
2250 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |