Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.293 vs 0.256 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Arraez, Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SF
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.338 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.309
0.323
0.336
0.349
wOBA
0.328
0.346
0.367
0.387
0.406
ISO
0.088
0.102
0.118
0.134
0.148
K%
2.4%
3.4%
4.4%
5.5%
6.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.6%
17
Barrel%0.0%
1
Bat speed61.4
1
Exit velocity86.7
28
Hard-hit%21.4%
4
K%3.6%
100
xBA0.305
33
xSLG0.386
12
xwOBA0.309
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
74
Arm Strength85.0 · 2B
42
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs6.6 · 2B
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · 2B
81
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.354 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
216 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 250 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 624 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.293 to 0.366 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.076 to 0.193 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 1.7% | 0.9% to 3.7% | +/- 1.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.5% | 18.2% to 30.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 4.6% | 3.3% to 11.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 2.7% to 8.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.309 | 0.287 to 0.365 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
977 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 5.2% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
2745 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 3.3% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |