Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Torres, Gleyber
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.342 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.346 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.344 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.311
0.326
0.344
0.362
0.377
wOBA
0.325
0.349
0.375
0.401
0.425
ISO
0.093
0.111
0.130
0.149
0.166
K%
15.4%
16.7%
18.1%
19.6%
20.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%16.8%
98
+31 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
43
Bat speed65.9
11
Exit velocity83.4
7
Hard-hit%27.5%
9
-38 vs proj
K%16.8%
80
xBA0.320
46
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.346
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength77.3 · 2B
3
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
81
Range Runs1.2 · 2B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · 2B
7
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.7% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions70.9% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
101 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| Sample | 155 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 620 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.306 to 0.396 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.156 | 0.113 to 0.231 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.6% to 7.6% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.6% | 36.1% to 47.5% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 18.6% | 15.4% to 23.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 8.6% to 13.8% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.297 | 0.276 to 0.346 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
1193 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.320 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 11.8% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |
vs RHP
3493 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.299 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 9.3% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |