Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Castro, Willi
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.295
0.308
0.321
0.332
wOBA
0.314
0.329
0.347
0.364
0.380
ISO
0.113
0.127
0.143
0.159
0.173
K%
24.0%
25.2%
26.5%
27.9%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
35
Exit velocity87.6
45
Hard-hit%41.3%
61
+19 vs proj
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.513
52
xwOBA0.294
36
-35 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed71.2
73
K%27.6%
24
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · 2B
91
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
89
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
43
Range Runs-2.1 · 2B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 2B
39
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate85.7% · 2B
67
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
58
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
138 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 341 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.329 | 0.304 to 0.377 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.108 to 0.242 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.9% to 7.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.1% | 31.7% to 43.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 23.7% | 20.6% to 29.4% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 6.0% to 11.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.313 | 0.273 to 0.365 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.260 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
1969 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |