Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Rengifo, Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.292
0.306
0.320
0.332
wOBA
0.267
0.287
0.310
0.333
0.353
ISO
0.093
0.107
0.123
0.139
0.153
K%
13.3%
14.4%
15.6%
16.8%
17.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
34
Barrel%4.7%
45
+16 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
45
Exit velocity87.4
37
Hard-hit%36.8%
37
K%11.6%
95
+28 vs proj
xBA0.289
22
xSLG0.395
15
xwOBA0.293
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.3 · 3B
58
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs-1.5 · 3B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 3B
21
Sprint Speed27.2 · 3B
47
SB Success Rate66.7% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
149 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 190 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 514 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.304 | 0.278 to 0.342 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.102 to 0.204 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 3.7% | 2.7% to 6.0% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.0% | 31.1% to 40.5% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 19.2% | 16.0% to 22.9% | +/- 3.5% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 4.9% to 9.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.262 to 0.328 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
716 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1901 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.249 |
| K% | 14.6% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |