Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Gray, Tristan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 36% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.280
0.310
0.339
0.366
wOBA
0.266
0.292
0.320
0.348
0.374
ISO
0.092
0.119
0.149
0.179
0.207
K%
23.9%
26.4%
29.1%
31.8%
34.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.7%
17
-15 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
47
-22 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
Exit velocity89.8
66
Hard-hit%45.2%
72
K%32.5%
6
xBA0.377
89
xSLG0.590
73
xwOBA0.299
40
-28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
32
Arm Strength85.4 · 3B
48
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
71
Range Runs1.0 · 3B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.2% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions64.5% · rebadged research
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.245 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 123 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 256 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.230 to 0.396 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.068 to 0.243 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 2.2% to 8.7% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 26.9% to 50.8% | +/- 11.9% |
| K% | 28.4% | 18.6% to 33.5% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 2.8% to 10.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.201 to 0.343 | +/- 0.071 |
vs LHP
47 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.133 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
164 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |