Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Gray, Tristan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
44
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.269 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.268
0.293
0.318
0.341
wOBA
0.251
0.271
0.292
0.314
0.334
ISO
0.087
0.110
0.135
0.160
0.182
K%
24.7%
26.7%
29.0%
31.4%
33.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
35
-37 vs proj
Exit velocity87.6
44
Hard-hit%40.0%
54
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.503
47
xwOBA0.269
15
-56 vs proj
BB%4.5%
11
-21 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
57
K%31.2%
12
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
81
Arm Strength87.0 · SS
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
68
Range Runs-3.1 · SS
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · SS
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.5% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
63
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
85 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.061 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 199 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 256 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.230 to 0.396 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.068 to 0.243 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 2.2% to 8.7% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 26.9% to 50.8% | +/- 11.9% |
| K% | 28.4% | 18.6% to 33.5% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 2.8% to 10.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.202 to 0.343 | +/- 0.071 |
vs LHP
47 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.133 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
164 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |