Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Hill, Derek
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CWS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.277 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.232
0.257
0.286
0.314
0.339
wOBA
0.323
0.354
0.389
0.424
0.456
ISO
0.071
0.097
0.126
0.155
0.180
K%
24.1%
26.3%
28.7%
31.1%
33.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.2%
75
+61 vs proj
Barrel%4.5%
42
Bat speed66.0
12
Exit velocity80.8
3
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
-27 vs proj
K%29.2%
16
xBA0.354
77
xSLG0.570
67
xwOBA0.307
48
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · RF
21
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs-0.6 · RF
Limited
Range Runs0.3 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · RF
49
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
22
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
93
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
87
Correct Decisions66.8% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
38
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.110 |
| Sample | 89 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 305 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.217 to 0.358 | +/- 0.071 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.064 to 0.213 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.0% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 29.3% to 49.6% | +/- 10.1% |
| K% | 27.6% | 22.1% to 34.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 2.7% to 8.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.202 to 0.341 | +/- 0.069 |
vs LHP
255 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
441 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.167 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |