Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Hoskins, Rhys
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CLE
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.308 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.269
0.285
0.302
0.320
0.335
wOBA
0.345
0.367
0.391
0.415
0.437
ISO
0.171
0.190
0.212
0.234
0.253
K%
23.4%
25.1%
27.0%
28.9%
30.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%18.0%
99
+40 vs proj
Barrel%7.1%
75
+18 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
56
Exit velocity89.5
60
Hard-hit%48.5%
85
+36 vs proj
K%26.8%
29
xBA0.278
15
xSLG0.517
51
xwOBA0.308
48
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
6
Range Runs-3.3 · 1B
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B
2
Sprint Speed24.9 · 1B
5
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
68
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
95 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.103 |
| Sample | 183 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 431 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.248 to 0.345 | +/- 0.049 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.124 to 0.261 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 3.6% to 8.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.9% | 34.5% to 49.0% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 28.0% | 22.1% to 33.2% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.5% to 12.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.204 to 0.324 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
1067 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |
vs RHP
2886 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 22.0% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |