Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Joe, Connor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 22% |
xwOBA
0.256
0.278
0.303
0.328
0.350
wOBA
0.371
0.410
0.452
0.495
0.533
ISO
0.083
0.109
0.139
0.169
0.195
K%
18.3%
20.9%
23.9%
26.9%
29.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
47
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%42.9%
66
+22 vs proj
xBA0.417
98
xSLG0.645
85
xwOBA0.337
76
+44 vs proj
BB%11.3%
80
+19 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
59
K%30.6%
14
-31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
40
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
34 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.162 |
| Sample | 62 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 291 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.229 to 0.342 | +/- 0.056 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.089 to 0.230 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.3% to 7.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 29.4% to 45.2% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 23.0% | 17.5% to 31.3% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.1% to 12.5% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.211 to 0.324 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
685 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1120 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |