Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
McKinstry, Zach
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.280
0.291
0.303
0.313
wOBA
0.284
0.299
0.314
0.330
0.344
ISO
0.095
0.107
0.120
0.133
0.145
K%
16.1%
17.1%
18.1%
19.2%
20.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7
-29 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%21.5%
4
-22 vs proj
xBA0.283
15
xSLG0.383
9
xwOBA0.283
28
-27 vs proj
BB%9.2%
59
Bat speed66.1
13
K%16.0%
85
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.9 · RF
95
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
95
Range Runs5.1 · RF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · RF
20
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
62
SB Success Rate25.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Fastball Stuff+30
0
Mithrandir Stuff+21
0
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
77
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 400 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.113 to 0.235 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 29.6% to 38.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| K% | 21.0% | 19.3% to 26.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.5% to 11.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.250 to 0.329 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
289 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
1583 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |