Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
McKinstry, Zach
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.246 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.283 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.257
0.269
0.283
0.297
0.310
wOBA
0.230
0.253
0.278
0.303
0.326
ISO
0.081
0.099
0.119
0.139
0.157
K%
17.7%
19.0%
20.5%
22.0%
23.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
53
Barrel%0.7%
4
-31 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
21
Exit velocity82.9
6
Hard-hit%20.8%
3
-19 vs proj
K%18.2%
73
+16 vs proj
xBA0.246
5
xSLG0.331
3
xwOBA0.246
7
-44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 2B
2
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
81
Range Runs2.7 · 2B
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · 2B
56
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions69.5% · rebadged research
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
58
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.305 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.063 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.031 |
| Sample | 143 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.113 to 0.235 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 29.6% to 38.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| K% | 21.0% | 19.3% to 26.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.5% to 11.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.250 to 0.329 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
289 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
1583 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |