Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026

Smith, Pavin

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.304 xwOBA
Range
0.278 to 0.369
Live Δ
--
Team AZ Archetype Balanced regular Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
59
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
55
Plate skills10 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
xwOBA preseason0.314
xwOBA current pace0.258
xwOBA rolling p500.304
Observed weight18%
xwOBA
0.264 0.283 0.304 0.326 0.345
wOBA
0.267 0.309 0.356 0.403 0.446
ISO
0.066 0.097 0.132 0.167 0.198
K%
19.6% 22.4% 25.5% 28.6% 31.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
55 Regression applied
Range Runs0.4 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.4 · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-12
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.5% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions70.4% · rebadged research
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

21 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Smith, Pavin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -1.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA 10.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 34.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -30.02026-03-22 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 68.8 / LA 31.02026-03-22 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -33.02026-03-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -7.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -5.02026-03-23 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 21.02026-03-24 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 27.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 74.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 47.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 37.02026-03-28 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 0.02026-06-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 5.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -7.02026-06-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 32.02026-06-07 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 30.02026-06-07 · single · KC · fly_ball · EV 62.5 / LA 31.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 1.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Smith, Pavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 23%23%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 88%88%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.246 vs 0.212 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances373----
Home Runs12----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3040.278 to 0.369+/- 0.046
ISO0.1650.097 to 0.257+/- 0.080
Barrel%5.9%3.7% to 8.7%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%41.5%35.5% to 50.4%+/- 7.4%
K%26.7%18.8% to 32.7%+/- 6.9%
BB%11.1%9.0% to 15.1%+/- 3.1%
BABIP0.2880.238 to 0.341+/- 0.052
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

349 career PA

xwOBA0.212
K%19.1%
BB%8.9%
Barrel3.4%
vs RHP

1321 career PA

xwOBA0.246
K%17.9%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.0%