Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / KC · 2026

Thomas, Lane

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.303 xwOBA
Range
0.243 to 0.361
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.298
xwOBA current pace0.296
xwOBA rolling p500.297
Observed weight40%
xwOBA
0.257 0.276 0.297 0.319 0.338
wOBA
0.299 0.323 0.350 0.377 0.401
ISO
0.070 0.093 0.118 0.143 0.166
K%
21.4% 23.2% 25.1% 27.1% 28.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%17.4%
99 +64 vs proj
Barrel%2.8%
22 -21 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
55
Exit velocity85.7
20
Hard-hit%33.7%
26 -23 vs proj
K%22.2%
48 +20 vs proj
xBA0.284
18
xSLG0.386
12
xwOBA0.296
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.5 · CF
99
Arm Strength94.8 · CF
71
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
20
Range Runs-2.9 · CF
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
54
Bolts1.0 · CF
17
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
91
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
75
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Thomas, Lane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3122026-05-19: 0.3072026-05-21: 0.3122026-05-23: 0.3102026-05-24: 0.3102026-05-25: 0.3092026-05-26: 0.3112026-05-28: 0.3032026-05-29: 0.3032026-05-30: 0.3032026-05-31: 0.2972026-06-01: 0.296 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

82 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Thomas, Lane · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsOppo 11% LF 330 CF 410 RF 330 2026-03-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA -15.02026-03-15 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 52.02026-03-19 · fielders choice · pitch · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -15.02026-03-19 · field out · pitch · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -41.02026-03-19 · home run · pitch · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 26.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA -7.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · popup · EV 64.2 / LA 79.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA -21.02026-03-23 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 11.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 33.02026-03-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 17.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 47.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.0 / LA -13.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 46.02026-04-02 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -18.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 78.02026-04-02 · field out · FC · popup · EV 64.5 / LA 83.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 18.02026-04-05 · field out · SV · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 68.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -11.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -23.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 54.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 13.02026-04-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 12.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 78.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 31.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 51.02026-04-14 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 19.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 53.02026-04-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 42.02026-04-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 53.3 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -9.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 48.6 / LA 54.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 37.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 75.4 / LA 16.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 24.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.8 / LA 68.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 4.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.1 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 46.02026-04-22 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 62.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · popup · EV 41.7 / LA 63.02026-04-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 1.02026-04-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.0 / LA -53.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 7.02026-04-26 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 27.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 13.02026-04-28 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -23.02026-04-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -15.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 54.02026-05-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.1 / LA 15.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 68.7 / LA 57.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 47.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 55.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.7 / LA 70.02026-05-07 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 38.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -5.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -21.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 25.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · popup · EV 63.1 / LA 47.02026-05-14 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 28.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 69.9 / LA 14.02026-05-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 10.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -25.02026-05-19 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 23.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 51.02026-05-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 12.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 30.02026-05-26 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 10.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 35.02026-05-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.6 / LA -83.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 25.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 46.02026-05-31 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 18.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Thomas, Lane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 23%23%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.267 vs 0.236 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.007
wOBA Δ+0.047
Sample144 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances340----
Home Runs11----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3030.243 to 0.361+/- 0.059
ISO0.1470.103 to 0.257+/- 0.077
Barrel%4.6%2.5% to 7.8%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%39.8%32.8% to 49.8%+/- 8.5%
K%26.7%22.5% to 33.2%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.3020.244 to 0.373+/- 0.065
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

739 career PA

xwOBA0.267
K%17.7%
BB%7.3%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHP

1685 career PA

xwOBA0.236
K%23.1%
BB%6.2%
Barrel3.9%