Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts
Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Sheets, Gavin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Swing path and decision map
Gavin Sheets's tools (94) outpace production (92) by 2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.
Field-coordinate spray profile
134 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Projection notes
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.089 |
| Sample | 203 PA |
negative regression
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 538 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.296 to 0.360 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.100 to 0.216 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.3% to 6.8% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.3% | 35.6% to 46.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 20.2% | 17.2% to 26.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.7% to 11.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.239 to 0.316 | +/- 0.039 |
364 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
1756 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |