Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SD · 2026

Sheets, Gavin

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.314 xwOBA
Range
0.296 to 0.360
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced regular Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.319
xwOBA current pace0.337
xwOBA rolling p500.328
Observed weight48%
xwOBA
0.301 0.314 0.328 0.341 0.354
wOBA
0.358 0.379 0.402 0.425 0.446
ISO
0.161 0.178 0.197 0.215 0.232
K%
18.3% 19.7% 21.2% 22.8% 24.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
64 +23 vs proj
Barrel%6.9%
73 +30 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
Exit velocity90.3
76
Hard-hit%48.9%
87 +37 vs proj
K%20.7%
59
xBA0.330
58
xSLG0.580
69
xwOBA0.337
73 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
19
Arm Strength90.7 · 1B
82
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
15
Range Runs-2.5 · 1B
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
67
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3% · rebadged research
11
Correct Decisions60.6% · rebadged research
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
20
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Sheets, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3312026-05-19: 0.3632026-05-21: 0.3582026-05-23: 0.3562026-05-24: 0.3522026-05-25: 0.3482026-05-26: 0.3482026-05-28: 0.3402026-05-29: 0.3412026-05-30: 0.3412026-05-31: 0.3452026-06-01: 0.337 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Gavin Sheets's tools (94) outpace production (92) by 2 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

134 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Sheets, Gavin · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 334 CF 396 RF 322 2026-03-15 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA 10.02026-03-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA -5.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -34.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 15.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -50.02026-03-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 31.02026-03-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -6.02026-03-19 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -19.02026-03-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.7 / LA 17.02026-03-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 37.02026-03-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -5.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -13.02026-03-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 13.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 82.9 / LA 66.02026-03-22 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 32.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball2026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -39.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 61.4 / LA 28.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 61.3 / LA -62.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 70.3 / LA 35.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 19.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA -19.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 4.02026-04-01 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 19.02026-04-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 10.02026-04-03 · single · CU · popup · EV 66.4 / LA 45.02026-04-03 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 10.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -38.02026-04-05 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 16.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -44.02026-04-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 5.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 67.02026-04-06 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 2.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.0 / LA 65.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -8.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 27.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 8.02026-04-08 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 15.02026-04-08 · field out · CU · popup · EV 70.3 / LA 72.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 21.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 62.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -19.02026-04-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 71.9 / LA 21.02026-04-09 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 2.02026-04-10 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 29.02026-04-10 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 26.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA -23.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -20.02026-04-14 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -14.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 47.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 30.02026-04-15 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.8 / LA 59.02026-04-15 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.5 / LA 8.02026-04-16 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 17.02026-04-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 38.02026-04-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 20.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 34.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -13.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -10.02026-04-19 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 0.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 50.4 / LA -39.02026-04-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.3 / LA 69.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 28.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -45.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA 5.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -31.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -14.02026-04-23 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 37.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.1 / LA -32.02026-04-25 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 6.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 6.02026-04-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 6.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 34.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 24.02026-04-27 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 26.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -13.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 23.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -38.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 74.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 52.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 7.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 45.02026-05-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 60.1 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -18.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 49.02026-05-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA 11.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 3.02026-05-06 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 28.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 62.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 68.3 / LA 69.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 17.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 54.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -7.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.2 / LA -30.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 18.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 9.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 56.6 / LA 10.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.9 / LA -14.02026-05-13 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 25.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -23.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -3.02026-05-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 15.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 11.02026-05-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 8.02026-05-16 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 29.02026-05-17 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 26.02026-05-17 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 26.02026-05-17 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 13.02026-05-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -36.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 18.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 50.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 46.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 2.02026-05-22 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 2.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 49.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -7.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 45.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · popup · EV 66.4 / LA 83.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 10.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 40.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 77.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 83.7 / LA 68.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Sheets, Gavin · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 29.8° Length 7.7 ft Ideal path 50% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Sheets, Gavin · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 7.5° Direction -4.4° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Sheets, Gavin · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 74.8 mph Hard swing rate 49% Whiff / swing 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Sheets, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.267 vs 0.231 xwOBA split).
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.023
wOBA Δ+0.089
Sample203 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances538----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3140.296 to 0.360+/- 0.032
ISO0.1400.100 to 0.216+/- 0.058
Barrel%4.7%3.3% to 6.8%+/- 1.8%
Hard-Hit%40.3%35.6% to 46.4%+/- 5.4%
K%20.2%17.2% to 26.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.2%6.7% to 11.6%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2810.239 to 0.316+/- 0.039
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

364 career PA

xwOBA0.231
K%18.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHP

1756 career PA

xwOBA0.267
K%16.8%
BB%7.1%
Barrel4.6%