Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.288 vs 0.232 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Sánchez, Jesús
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.333 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.318
0.333
0.348
0.361
wOBA
0.344
0.365
0.388
0.411
0.432
ISO
0.136
0.153
0.172
0.191
0.208
K%
19.5%
21.1%
22.8%
24.5%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.5%
10
-31 vs proj
Barrel%6.5%
70
Bat speed70.8
69
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%46.9%
79
K%21.6%
51
xBA0.376
88
xSLG0.615
78
xwOBA0.343
77
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · RF
22
Arm Strength97.4 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Range Runs-4.0 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · RF
35
Sprint Speed26.0 · RF
20
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.9% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.1% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344 · validated
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.066 |
| Sample | 199 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 505 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.322 | 0.293 to 0.368 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.113 to 0.234 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.9% to 9.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.9% | 40.7% to 52.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.6% | 19.7% to 30.0% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.4% to 11.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.246 to 0.340 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
392 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1738 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |