Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Rivas, Leo

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.292 xwOBA
Range
0.213 to 0.331
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
xwOBA preseason0.283
xwOBA current pace0.239
xwOBA rolling p500.266
Observed weight39%
xwOBA
0.226 0.245 0.266 0.287 0.306
wOBA
0.225 0.248 0.274 0.299 0.322
ISO
0.025 0.051 0.079 0.108 0.133
K%
20.4% 22.5% 24.8% 27.1% 29.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.3%
94 +21 vs proj
Barrel%1.4%
8
Bat speed61.1
1
Exit velocity85.7
19
Hard-hit%18.2%
2
K%28.6%
18 -22 vs proj
xBA0.235
3
xSLG0.336
3
xwOBA0.239
5 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.0 · 3B
42
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.4 · 3B
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · 3B
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-02
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.0% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
86
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rivas, Leo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2392026-05-21: 0.2392026-05-23: 0.2392026-05-24: 0.2392026-05-25: 0.2392026-05-26: 0.2392026-05-28: 0.2392026-05-29: 0.2392026-05-30: 0.2392026-05-31: 0.2392026-06-01: 0.2392026-06-02: 0.239 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

77 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rivas, Leo · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 18.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 50.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 19.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 35.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 58.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 24.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -5.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 16.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 42.02026-03-23 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -16.02026-03-23 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 58.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 35.02026-03-27 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 29.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 34.02026-03-28 · fielders choice out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -13.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 16.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 54.4 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 68.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 27.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -30.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA -46.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -44.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 17.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 40.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 38.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 59.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 16.02026-04-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 1.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.9 / LA 63.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 20.02026-04-18 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -25.02026-04-18 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 34.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 28.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 32.02026-04-20 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 13.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 9.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 65.02026-04-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 9.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 21.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 54.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 27.02026-04-25 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 31.0 / LA -22.02026-04-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 71.8 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 34.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 20.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.9 / LA 60.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -44.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 66.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 41.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -6.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 37.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 33.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.5 / LA 63.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 42.02026-05-06 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -9.02026-05-06 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 1.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-05-09 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 33.1 / LA -21.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 71.7 / LA 33.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 34.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 18.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -6.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 45.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Rivas, Leo · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 36.2° Length 7.0 ft Ideal path 51% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Rivas, Leo · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 15.5° Direction -3.6° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Rivas, Leo · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 65.0 mph Hard swing rate 0% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rivas, Leo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 17%17%Whiff: 23%23%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 77%77%Hard hit: 18%18% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.053
wOBA Δ-0.018
Sample140 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances283----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2920.213 to 0.331+/- 0.059
ISO0.1000.011 to 0.185+/- 0.087
Barrel%2.3%0.4% to 5.5%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%27.4%16.7% to 39.8%+/- 11.5%
K%23.3%18.3% to 31.4%+/- 6.6%
BB%10.9%6.0% to 14.3%+/- 4.2%
BABIP0.2970.207 to 0.368+/- 0.080
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

83 career PA

xwOBA0.138
K%12.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel0.9%
vs RHP

172 career PA

xwOBA0.135
K%13.1%
BB%7.8%
Barrel1.0%