Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Perkins, Blake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.264 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.241
0.259
0.278
0.298
0.316
wOBA
0.235
0.262
0.291
0.320
0.347
ISO
0.073
0.095
0.120
0.145
0.167
K%
20.1%
22.1%
24.4%
26.7%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
19
Exit velocity82.9
7
Hard-hit%31.1%
18
xBA0.261
8
xSLG0.392
11
xwOBA0.264
13
-17 vs proj
BB%9.3%
59
Bat speed65.8
10
K%20.4%
62
+34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · CF
37
Arm Strength97.3 · CF
84
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-1.1 · CF
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · CF
42
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
83
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
61 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 108 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 342 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.233 to 0.330 | +/- 0.048 |
| ISO | 0.101 | 0.059 to 0.194 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.1% to 6.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.5% | 28.6% to 46.5% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.7% | 21.3% to 33.2% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.3% to 12.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.239 to 0.358 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.213 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
544 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.202 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |