Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026

Nootbaar, Lars

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.346 xwOBA
Range
0.311 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Impact slugger Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
80
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
79
Defense4 metrics
65
Speed1 metrics
51
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-08-31
xwOBA preseason0.336
xwOBA current pace0.345
xwOBA rolling p500.341
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.316 0.328 0.341 0.355 0.367
wOBA
0.287 0.305 0.325 0.345 0.362
ISO
0.126 0.142 0.159 0.175 0.191
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.8% 21.3% 22.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-08-31
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
80
Exit velocity91.5
91
Hard-hit%49.7%
93
xBA0.322
54
xSLG0.582
75
xwOBA0.345
88
BB%13.4%
93
Bat speed70.7
68
K%19.7%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
59
Arm Strength95.4 · LF
65
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.9 · LF
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
51
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-08-31
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.9% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
40
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Nootbaar, Lars · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.304 0.345 2026-08-20: 0.3262026-08-21: 0.3262026-08-22: 0.3262026-08-23: 0.3262026-08-24: 0.3262026-08-25: 0.3332026-08-26: 0.3332026-08-27: 0.3342026-08-28: 0.3322026-08-29: 0.3322026-08-30: 0.3452026-08-31: 0.345 2026-08-20 2026-08-31 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

65 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Nootbaar, Lars · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 24.02026-06-05 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 21.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 27.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -20.02026-06-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA -10.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 39.02026-06-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 8.02026-06-15 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -8.02026-06-22 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 3.02026-06-24 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 24.02026-06-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 8.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.2 / LA -30.02026-06-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 0.02026-06-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 47.5 / LA -57.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 79.4 / LA 49.02026-06-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 9.02026-06-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -7.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 26.02026-07-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 14.02026-07-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 31.02026-07-31 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -10.02026-07-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -16.02026-07-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 79.3 / LA -19.02026-08-02 · field error · KC · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 6.02026-08-02 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -60.02026-08-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -39.02026-08-02 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 17.02026-08-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -12.02026-08-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.6 / LA -32.02026-08-05 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 83.8 / LA 11.02026-08-05 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -28.02026-08-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.5 / LA 31.02026-08-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -37.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 43.02026-08-07 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 20.02026-08-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 58.3 / LA -57.02026-08-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 49.02026-08-08 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 7.02026-08-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -9.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.0 / LA 46.02026-08-11 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -2.02026-08-14 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 50.9 / LA 18.02026-08-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 30.02026-08-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 7.02026-08-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 2.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 3.02026-08-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 5.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 57.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -9.02026-08-19 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 21.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 28.02026-08-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 12.02026-08-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -14.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 31.02026-08-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 19.02026-08-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -63.02026-08-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 49.02026-08-24 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -7.02026-08-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 34.02026-08-27 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 26.02026-08-27 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 43.02026-08-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 9.02026-08-27 · field out · CH · popup · EV 79.4 / LA 63.02026-08-29 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 30.02026-08-29 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 35.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Nootbaar, Lars · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 19%19%Whiff: 17%17%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 83%83%Hard hit: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.295 vs 0.240 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.001
wOBA Δ-0.022
Sample254 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances543----
Home Runs15----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3460.311 to 0.376+/- 0.033
ISO0.1740.117 to 0.238+/- 0.061
Barrel%7.1%4.7% to 8.9%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%46.1%42.6% to 53.3%+/- 5.3%
K%20.0%16.0% to 25.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%11.9%9.8% to 14.8%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.2900.258 to 0.335+/- 0.039
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

526 career PA

xwOBA0.240
K%20.5%
BB%8.9%
Barrel4.0%
vs RHP

1506 career PA

xwOBA0.295
K%15.3%
BB%11.2%
Barrel5.8%