Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
None
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team STL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.430 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 10% |
xwOBA
0.196
0.240
0.289
0.338
0.382
wOBA
0.247
0.307
0.374
0.441
0.500
ISO
0.050
0.090
0.134
0.178
0.218
K%
10.4%
15.7%
21.6%
27.5%
32.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF · small sample regression applied
67
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
56
Correct Decisions71.1% · rebadged research
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
67
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
29
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
90
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
16 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.134 to 0.339 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.033 to 0.218 | +/- 0.093 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 0.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 14.8% to 42.7% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 24.7% | 9.3% to 34.1% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 2.2% to 10.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.143 to 0.351 | +/- 0.104 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |