Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
None
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team STL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
xwOBA
0.202
0.239
0.281
0.322
0.360
wOBA
0.246
0.279
0.316
0.352
0.385
ISO
0.082
0.116
0.153
0.191
0.225
K%
13.0%
17.4%
22.4%
27.4%
31.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
55
+34 vs proj
Exit velocity84.3
12
Hard-hit%32.0%
22
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.535
59
xwOBA0.302
44
BB%6.8%
29
-20 vs proj
Bat speed62.2
2
K%21.9%
53
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
90
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
48
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.5% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions66.0% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
54
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
25 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| Sample | 73 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 200 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.134 to 0.339 | +/- 0.102 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.033 to 0.218 | +/- 0.093 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 0.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.9% | 14.8% to 42.7% | +/- 14.0% |
| K% | 24.7% | 9.3% to 34.1% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 2.2% to 10.4% | +/- 4.1% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.144 to 0.351 | +/- 0.104 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
1 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 0.1% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |